Global ice cream market 2026: giants split up, cocoa gets cheaper, Asia accelerates

2026 is a structural year for the ice cream market. Unilever's ice cream business has listed on the stock exchange as a separate company, The Magnum Ice Cream Company; Nestlé is preparing to sell its remaining ice cream businesses; and Froneri is growing through acquisitions. At the same time, there is a turnaround on the cost side: cocoa, which ate into profits in 2025, has become sharply cheaper, and dairy is cheap too, but sugar is getting more expensive.

How big is the market? The answer depends on whom you ask

There is no single figure for the size of the global ice cream market. IMARC puts it at $80.9 billion for 2025, and Expert Market Research at $86.8 billion. GlobalData estimates $86.7 billion for 2024, while The Business Research Company calculates $105.8 billion. In its coverage of Magnum's listing, Reuters put the market at $87 billion. The gap is as much as $25 billion — so reports should always state the source and the base year.

Growth forecasts also differ: from 2.9% to 6.3% a year. Market leader Magnum expects the market to grow by 3–4% in 2026, and its target for its own organic growth is 3–5%. Which region is the largest is also disputed: IMARC names Europe (35.1%), while GlobalData names the Americas (34.4%).

The leaders: Magnum and Froneri

Although the market is highly fragmented, two players are clearly ahead. Magnum holds 21% of the global market and Froneri about 11%. Four of the world's five largest ice cream brands belong to Magnum.

Magnum began trading on the Amsterdam, London and New York stock exchanges on 8 December 2025; on the first day, its valuation was slightly below the company's 2024 revenue (€7.9 billion). Its 2025 results were poorly received: revenue stayed at €7.9 billion, net profit fell from €595 million to €307 million, and the shares dropped 13.9% on the day the results were published. In Europe, profit was eaten up mainly by expensive cocoa. In the first half of 2026, however, the company beat expectations: organic growth was 4.7%, while analysts had expected 3.4%. Ben & Jerry's grew 9.2% in the second quarter. Even so, net profit for the first half fell from €464 million to €349 million. The company has acquired a controlling stake in Kwality Wall's in India and the business in Portugal.

Froneri generated €5.56 billion in revenue in 2025, growth of 3.1% at constant exchange rates. But volume declined slightly: by about 0.3% in pallets and by 0.8% for its core brands. The company is building growth through acquisitions: it is buying Food Union's European business and has taken full control of its joint venture with Nestlé in Mexico. Nestlé, for its part, is in talks to sell its remaining ice cream businesses to Froneri for about CHF 1 billion.

Who is growing and who is falling behind

The fastest growth is coming from Asia and Central Asia. The cold products business of Yili, the leader in China for 30 years, grew by 12.6% in 2025 and by 10.3% in the first half of 2026 — the company's fastest-growing core business. Lotte's ice cream sales in India rose 29% in the first half, while production volume increased by 85%. Kazakhstan produced a record 63,200 tonnes of ice cream in 2025 (+22%), became a net exporter for the first time, and increased production by 47.4% in the first half of 2026.

On the declining side, Nestlé is selling its remaining ice cream businesses to Froneri (while staying in the joint venture), and General Mills is selling its Häagen-Dazs shops in China. According to analyst Yaling Jiang, high-fat ice cream in China has passed its peak.

The US market teaches another lesson: classic packaged ice cream fell 1% in value and 3% in units, but small and "lighter" formats are growing fast. JonnyPops grew 88%, Yasso 18% and dairy-based frozen desserts 29%. Shoppers are buying smaller packs, which is why volume is falling.

Raw materials: cocoa gets cheaper, sugar gets dearer

In 2025, cocoa was the biggest problem for ice cream makers. In 2026, the situation has changed. According to the World Bank, in June cocoa was more than 50% cheaper than a year earlier. On 22 October, cocoa futures stood at about $5,580 per tonne — less than half the December 2024 peak of $12,906. The FAO Dairy Price Index has fallen 19.1% over the year, and butter and cheese are considerably cheaper than a year ago.

But not all costs are going down. The FAO Sugar Price Index has risen 14.7% over the year and is at its highest level since April 2025. Skimmed milk powder has become 33.1% more expensive. Magnum, for its part, points to energy costs and uncertainty in the Middle East as new risks for 2026.

Demand: weather, GLP-1 and protein

The weather still decides the quarters. In 2025, a cold summer pushed production down in Russia, and in the first half of 2026, bad weather slowed Magnum's growth in China.

The second theme is weight-loss drugs (GLP-1). According to a Cornell University study, households taking these drugs cut their grocery spending by 5.3% within six months, and their spending on sweets by even more. In the US, these households already make up 23% of all households. Magnum's position is that these people cut calories but do not give up "treating" themselves. The response is already visible on the market: ice creams with 30 grams of protein per tub and portions under 250 calories.

Neighbouring markets: Russia, Türkiye, Kazakhstan, Azerbaijan

Russia. According to Rosstat, ice cream production fell 7.5% in 2025 to 517,000 tonnes. The start of 2026 was weak too: −11.9% in January and −20.5% in February. But production grew again in June and July (+6.8% and +6.4%), and the decline for January–July narrowed to 1.8%. "Русский холодъ" has effectively left the market.

Türkiye. The Competition Authority has opened an investigation into Unilever Türkiye and Magnum Dondurma and has required that 30% of freezer cabinets be set aside for competitors' products. Türkiye's ice cream exports were $72.8 million in 2025.

Kazakhstan is the region's new exporter: in 2025, exports rose 36.8% to 14,200 tonnes, while imports fell to 12,200 tonnes.

Azerbaijan. In January–April 2026, the country imported 205 tonnes of ice cream worth $1.35 million. The largest supplier by value is Türkiye, and by volume, Russia. For the first time in nine years, imports from China were also recorded.

5 takeaways for marketers

1. Cost pressure is easing, but prices will not fall right away. Cocoa and milk are getting cheaper, while sugar and energy are getting more expensive. This means room for manoeuvre in pricing policy for 2027.
2. Small and "light" formats are winning. Portion control, protein and low calories are no longer a niche but the main source of growth.
3. Premium does not work for everyone. Ben & Jerry's is growing, but the high-fat premium segment in China is weakening. A premium position must be backed by the value of the product.
4. The freezer cabinet is a competitive tool. The decision in Türkiye shows that exclusivity over freezer cabinets is on regulators' radar.
5. Regional producers are growing. Kazakhstan's rapid growth and the resumption of imports from China show that competition in the regional market will intensify.

The report is based on data published up to 23 October 2026.